Thursday, June 22, 2006

 

No Crew Risk

Possible NASA Press Conference, Late July 2006.

Q: Mr. Griffin, Mr. Griffin!

A: Yes, you.

Q: Look, we all knew you were just kidding when you talked about "mitigation" of crew risk through tile repairs, and we had a good laugh when you talked about "launch on need" following yet another unanticipated foam strike. And I know I personally high-fived you for not mentioning the abort risks when you talked about ascent risk. But -- and I know this makes us look pretty stupid -- we actually believed you when you talked about CSCS. So my question is this. Are we stupid or what?

A: I wouldn't say that. I mean, who could have anticipated that doubling --

Q: Tripling --

Q: No, quadrupling --

A: OK, fine, whatever it is mathematically to go from a space station crew of two to a crew of 9 --

Q: That's 4-and-a-half times --

A: Thank you, but my point is, how would anyone know the increase in crew size would place any burden or stress on the station?

Q: Well, you know how long it took to fix the Elektron oxygen generator just last month.

A: So? That just means it's fixed, doesn't it? How could we possibly have known a month-old fix might fail again?

Q: But it failed before in 2004, for example, and in 2005 and was fixed, but still failed again last month. And the Vozdukh carbon dioxide scrubbers -- they just failed last year.

A: But you see --

Q: Didn't the Vozdukh also fail in 2002?

A: So why would we think --

Q: And in 2000?

A: But we knew the CDRAs in the American part --

Q: The system that failed in July 2002, September 2002, were out at least twice in November 2002?

A: Yes, that system --

Q: And again in 2003 and 2005?

A: Yes, yes, but why would anyone think it might possibly fail again? And anyway, the shuttle has carbon dioxide removal capability, and there's no reason to think that could ever fail.

Q: So the "Contingency Shuttle Crew Support" plan was to hope nothing went wrong for life support for 82 days, and to get two Soyuzes up and back before the air ran out?

A: Actually, CSCS was always tied to LON. We didn't really analyze what would happen if we couldn't find a solution to whatever went wrong with the first shuttle, test it, and retrofit, before air ran out at the station.

Q: Why aren't they using the new oxygen generation system they took up with them?

A: Oh, they will, they will, once it's installed.

Q: And how long will that take?

A: Oh, let's see, what time is it right now? Well, then it would be in a few months.

Q: With one Soyuz at the station, then, you just needed two more to get everybody down?

A: Exactly, exactly! They have an excellent record, 10 successful launches in 2003, 9 in 2004, and 11 in 2005. If the crew could just survive 60 to 80 days, we should be able to get them all back.

Q: Assuming nothing went wrong on the station?

A: That's right.

Q: But things did go wrong on the station, just as they have before.

A: (Puts on ruby slippers, clicks heels together) No crew risk, no crew risk!



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