Friday, February 04, 2005

 

Step 2 -- Presidency Council ... Step 4 -- Profit!

Soon will begin "second phase" of the “transitional period” in Iraq. The following summarizes the steps which will follow the seating of the National Assembly elected on January 30, 2005. It's basically this:

  1. National Assembly selects three-person Presidency Council, by two-thirds vote
  2. Within two weeks, PC unanimously selects Prime Minister
  3. PM recommends ministers; PC names them and NA approves them
  4. NA completes constitution by August 15, 2005
  5. Referendum on constitution by October 15, 2005
  6. New elections under new constitution by December 15, 2005
  7. New government takes office by December 31, 2005
  8. Unless the constitution was not approved in the referendum, or was rejected by two-thirds of voters in three or more governates, in which case, start over with a new National Assembly.

There are several “GO TO 10” provisions, such as if the constitution is rejected in the referendum. A guest editorial on Juan Cole's blog points out this potentially means Sunnis could be permanently oppressed, as they reject proposed constitution after proposed constitution, year after year. The Kurds are protected under the TAL, as would be the Shiite majority, and one might think they will have little incentive to offer the Sunnis much in the constitution. Professor Arato overlooks completely how annoying elections year-after-year can be.

Under the Transitional Administrative Law, all legislative power during the transitional period will be exercised by a “National Assembly.” Article 30(A). The National Assembly consists of 275 members. Article 31(A).

All executive power during the transitional period will be exercised by the Presidency Council, and the Council of Ministers, including the Prime Minister. Article 35. The National Assembly elects the President and two Deputies – they are the “Presidency Council.” Article 36(A).

The election of the Presidency Council “shall take place on the basis of a single list” and requires a two-thirds vote (i.e., 184 votes). Article 36(A).

The Presidency Council has the power to veto legislative acts, which veto can be over-ridden with a two-thirds vote. Article 37.

The Presidency Council names the Prime Minister. Article 38(A). This Presidency Council must be unanimous. Article 38(A). The Prime Minister then recommends the Council of Ministers, who are then actually named by the Presidency Council. Article 38(A).

The Presidency Council only has two weeks to agree on a Prime Minister. Article 38(A). If they fail to agree within that time period, the National Assembly chooses the Prime Minister. Article 38(A).

If the Prime Minister and the rest of the Council of Ministers are chosen by the Presidency Council, they are approved by only a simple majority in the National Assembly. Article 38(A). On the other hand, if the Presidency Council failed to agree on the Prime Minister in time, the National Assembly chooses the Prime Minister by a two-thirds vote and then confirms the Council of Ministers nominated by the Prime Minister also by a two-thirds vote. Article 38(A). If the Prime Minister fails to nominate a Council of Ministers within a month, the Presidency Council must name another Prime Minister. Article 38(A).

The National Assembly must draft the permanent constitution. Article 60. They must prepare the draft constitution by August 15, 2005. Article 61(A). (There is a provision for a single six-month extension of this deadline. Article 61(F).) The draft will then be submitted to the Iraqi people in a general referendum by October 15, 2005. Article 61(B). The draft constitution must be: (1) approved by a majority of voters; and (2) not disapproved by two-thirds of the voters in three or more governates. Article 61(C).

If the constitution is approved, there will be elections by December 15, 2005 and the new government will take office by December 31, 2005. Article 61(D).

If the constitution is not approved, there will be elections for a new National Assembly by December 15, 2005 which will take office by December 31, 2005. Article 61 (E).

If the National Assembly fails to draft a constitution by August 15, 2005, then there will be elections for a new National Assembly by December 15, 2005 which will take office by December 31, 2005. Article 61(G).


# posted by Andy @ 5:31 PM
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