Friday, February 04, 2005
Guide to Iraqi Politics
As most Andromeda readers know, Iraqi politics are simple and clear. First, there are the individuals running for office. Then, there are the parties running in their own name. And finally there are the coalitions, combining many organizations for the sake of winning at the polls and then fighting later about who actually governs.
The largest coalition is the UIA -- the United Iraqi Alliance. As the name indicates, the UIA is both "united" and an "alliance." Therefore, it is extemely likely to break up into feuding factions, assuming it wins by a sufficient margin. Perhaps you can guess something about this coalition by reviewing some of the names of the parties in it: Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, Islamic Dawa Party, Islamic Action Organization, Islamic Fayli Grouping, Fayli Kurd Islamic Union, etc. Ayatollah al-Sistani has "blessed" this group.
Next, you have the Iraqis Party. As the name indicates, it is composed of Iraqis formed into what they call a "party." The Iraqis Party is led by interim President Ghazi al-Yawer, a Sunni, but includes both Sunnis and Shiites. Hence, the term "party." But this organization is not to be confused with the Iraqi Par-tay, led by Puff Daddy al-Sunni.
There is also "The Iraqi List," led by interim Prime Minister Allawi. It is mostly Shiite, but more secular than the UIA. While the name sounds quite chic, it is pretty safe to assume that the guy who ostensibly ordered the attack on Fallujah will do about as well in an Iraqi election as the guy who actually ordered the attack.
The Sunnis and secularists ensured their vote was further split and confused by forming the Assembly of Independent Democrats (Adnan Pachachi), the National Democratic Party, and the Peoples Union (aka, the Commies).
Then, there are the Kurd parties, the PUK and the KDP. They united to form an alliance which, for unknown reasons, they have chosen to call Kurdish Alliance. Apparently, they were not "united."
Finally, there are the LaRouchies. At this time, no one knows who they are, what they stand for, or how they got on the ballot.
Juan Cole predicts the Shiites unite with the Kurds to get to two-thirds of the National Assembly and form a government. They then would be free to draft a constitution which suits them. Assuming Sunnis don't turn out to vote on the constitution, it is possible a constitution calling for ethnic cleansing of non-Kurdish Sunnis would be passed. Then, why not an independent Kurdistan, leaving the rest of Iraq an Islamic Republic closely allied with Iran? As usual, the only hope is the general incompetence which democracy brings (see "feuding factions" above).
The largest coalition is the UIA -- the United Iraqi Alliance. As the name indicates, the UIA is both "united" and an "alliance." Therefore, it is extemely likely to break up into feuding factions, assuming it wins by a sufficient margin. Perhaps you can guess something about this coalition by reviewing some of the names of the parties in it: Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, Islamic Dawa Party, Islamic Action Organization, Islamic Fayli Grouping, Fayli Kurd Islamic Union, etc. Ayatollah al-Sistani has "blessed" this group.
Next, you have the Iraqis Party. As the name indicates, it is composed of Iraqis formed into what they call a "party." The Iraqis Party is led by interim President Ghazi al-Yawer, a Sunni, but includes both Sunnis and Shiites. Hence, the term "party." But this organization is not to be confused with the Iraqi Par-tay, led by Puff Daddy al-Sunni.
There is also "The Iraqi List," led by interim Prime Minister Allawi. It is mostly Shiite, but more secular than the UIA. While the name sounds quite chic, it is pretty safe to assume that the guy who ostensibly ordered the attack on Fallujah will do about as well in an Iraqi election as the guy who actually ordered the attack.
The Sunnis and secularists ensured their vote was further split and confused by forming the Assembly of Independent Democrats (Adnan Pachachi), the National Democratic Party, and the Peoples Union (aka, the Commies).
Then, there are the Kurd parties, the PUK and the KDP. They united to form an alliance which, for unknown reasons, they have chosen to call Kurdish Alliance. Apparently, they were not "united."
Finally, there are the LaRouchies. At this time, no one knows who they are, what they stand for, or how they got on the ballot.
Juan Cole predicts the Shiites unite with the Kurds to get to two-thirds of the National Assembly and form a government. They then would be free to draft a constitution which suits them. Assuming Sunnis don't turn out to vote on the constitution, it is possible a constitution calling for ethnic cleansing of non-Kurdish Sunnis would be passed. Then, why not an independent Kurdistan, leaving the rest of Iraq an Islamic Republic closely allied with Iran? As usual, the only hope is the general incompetence which democracy brings (see "feuding factions" above).
